Posts Tagged ‘Cromwell FX’
Banking Crisis on The Horizon?
Last week we saw elevated levels of volatility and uncertainty. The week before SVB was failing in the midst of a regional banking crisis. Last week we saw the SNB step into backstop Credit Suisse as the troubled lender grappled with a falling share price and a lack of confidence.
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Last week we expected the markets to be all about the data. We had the Fed speaking early in the week which continued the higher for longer theme and the hotly anticipated monthly payrolls were due Friday.
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Fed Higher for Longer Still in Focus
Last week quieter than expected as February came to an end. The main focus that has emerged has been the Higher for Longer as the markets look to reprice rate expectations and inflation remains stubbornly high. The DXY lost 0.7% as rate expectations for the Fed increased. Any higher for longer will have a drag on the US economy.
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Fed Moves to Higher and Longer
Last week saw another week of strong data from the US. This led the market to disregard any level of terminal rates as markets look to be set for higher and longer than expected. Inflation remains strong with the risk off theme continuing. The USD showed strength with the DXZY closing +1.3% on the week.
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CPI Surprise
Last week the US CPI was released. The surprise was to the upside with the YoY did drop for the seventh month, but January’s decline was just 0.1% to 6.4%. This was higher than the market expectation and yields push higher on the back of the release.
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Week of consolidation ahead of key CPI
Last week the markets took a breath after the FOMC / NFP week previously. The market is taking time to figure out if this is truly the peak of Fed rate rises or if there could be more to come.
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Roller Coaster Week with Central Banks and Payrolls
Last week saw the first anticipated rate hike from the fed. A 25bps rise and a failure to maintain the hawkish stance led the market to believe we are reaching our long-anticipated pause point.
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Quiet Week as Market Awaits Fed
Quiet Week as Market Awaits Fed. Last week was the first quiet week of the year. The markets gained vs the US Dollar as we could be heading towards the crucial pivot point in Fed Rate rises.
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BOJ Disappoints
Last week saw the anticipated BOJ announcement which disappointed the market. The BOJ decided not to take any action on interest rates which was a surprise. Other than that, the market had a relatively sideways week.
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Dollar Slumps After CPI Numbers
Last week saw the CPI number released. the YoY number met expectations however the market viewed the print as further fuel to the Feds fire to pause its tightening of interest rates. The USD fell significantly along with a risk asset rally.
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