Banking Crisis on The Horizon?

Last week we saw elevated levels of volatility and uncertainty. The week before SVB was failing in the midst of a regional banking crisis. Last week we saw the SNB step into backstop Credit Suisse as the troubled lender grappled with a falling share price and a lack of confidence.

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SVB Outshines Payrolls

Last week we expected the markets to be all about the data. We had the Fed speaking early in the week which continued the higher for longer theme and the hotly anticipated monthly payrolls were due Friday.

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Cromwell FX Market View

Fed Higher for Longer Still in Focus

Last week quieter than expected as February came to an end. The main focus that has emerged has been the Higher for Longer as the markets look to reprice rate expectations and inflation remains stubbornly high. The DXY lost 0.7% as rate expectations for the Fed increased. Any higher for longer will have a drag on the US economy.

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Cromwell FX Market View

Fed Moves to Higher and Longer

Last week saw another week of strong data from the US. This led the market to disregard any level of terminal rates as markets look to be set for higher and longer than expected. Inflation remains strong with the risk off theme continuing. The USD showed strength with the DXZY closing +1.3% on the week.

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Cromwell FX Market View

CPI Surprise

Last week the US CPI was released. The surprise was to the upside with the YoY did drop for the seventh month, but January’s decline was just 0.1% to 6.4%. This was higher than the market expectation and yields push higher on the back of the release.

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Cromwell FX Market View

BOJ Disappoints

Last week saw the anticipated BOJ announcement which disappointed the market. The BOJ decided not to take any action on interest rates which was a surprise. Other than that, the market had a relatively sideways week.

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