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Is It That Time of Year Again?

This post was originally published on jpfs.com

I’ve spent the past week in the UK, and it’s been quite an interesting time with the announcement of a snap election by the unelected Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak. The media is buzzing with political promises – or lies, depending on your perspective – that seem more absurd than ever before.

As someone who values the British political system, I must say that the British public faces a tough choice. The options are hardly inspiring. The Labour Party claims to be the most business-friendly party ever, while the Conservatives position themselves as the party of the working man. It’s no wonder many voters feel they have no idea who to vote for.

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The Reform Party appears to have solid support among those with conservative values, but their message often lacks substance. The likely outcome is a Labour victory, leading to a Blairite socialist government, which will lead the country into 2030—a prospect that doesn’t seem promising for anyone. It’s enough to make you want to weep.

Market Outlook

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Turning back to the markets, not much has changed over the past week or so. Equity markets are holding up well, but I’m far from confident that these high levels can be sustained without a serious correction. With the end of May approaching, such a correction might not be too far off. Moving forward, I recommend selling into any further strength or buying some out-of-the-money S&P 500 September puts to cover the summer holiday period.

Looking at EURUSD, I might be wrong, but it appears that a diamond chart pattern is developing on my chart, which could indicate a period of dollar strength. As mentioned a few weeks ago, I maintain a long dollar exposure and will continue to do so unless the diamond pattern proves false and the dollar weakens a few cents further.

Commodities and Metals

In the commodity space, while I remain bullish overall, there are signs that corrections might be due. If you’re long, consider banking some cash and saving it for the summer holidays. Wheat has performed exceptionally well, and although there might be a bit more upside, I’d recommend liquidating longs and re-entering later in the year. Corn has also rallied reasonably well, making it a good time to cash out and perhaps enjoy a few beers.

In the metals sector, we’ve seen strong performances in recent months. I like the long-term outlook for both copper and aluminium. However, much of the bullish news has already been factored into these markets, so it might be wise to bank some profits now with the idea of re-entering if values drop in the coming months. I’m not suggesting shorting these markets, but as mentioned last week, markets rarely move in a straight line for long.

Cryptocurrency

Lastly, let’s touch on Bitcoin, which seems to be going nowhere fast. I’m uncertain about Bitcoin at current levels. While I can see the longer-term potential for higher value, I’m not interested in this asset right now. Confidence is key in the world of crypto, and I’m not convinced enough to jump in.

It’s reassuring to hear from Donald Trump that our crypto is safe and that a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) will never be introduced under his watch. But even if Trump wins the next election, he only has four more years in office, which means we’ll have someone new by 2030.

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While 2030 might seem far off, it’s the elections this year that will shape what happens between now and then. Long-term investors need a better roadmap than what’s currently available.

Final Thoughts

Over the past three years, only my view of Bitcoin has fluctuated, reflecting the major changes in the crypto industry. Holding physical gold remains crucial for the future, and speculating in gold paper can add value to your portfolio. Additionally, having exposure to the renewable energy sector is beneficial. However, electric vehicles (EVs) are not for me due to numerous negative stories. This opens the door to hydrogen, which has made significant advancements in recent years.

As a layman, it seems to me that changing hydrogen cells is vastly preferable to plug-and-wait EVs, and this industry is much more environmentally friendly. A small investment in hydrogen fuel production might be worth considering. If you’re unsure where to start, consult the people at trademakers.

The post Is It That Time of Year Again? first appeared on JP Fund Services.

The post Is It That Time of Year Again? appeared first on JP Fund Services.

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