Gamble on the Unexpected
George Soros, once said something like, if you want to make money, take a chance on things nobody expects to happen…
For a big shot like him, who can move markets and play with people’s minds, this money-making strategy probably sounds easy-peasy. But for us regular folks sitting in the cheap seats at the back, making dough isn’t that simple.
I struggle to find situations that are totally unexpected (but I guess that’s why they’re called “unexpected”). There’s so much info and opinions in our line of work that someone’s always talking about an event no one else is thinking of. By the time December comes around, we’ve got a bunch of investment folks and analysts making wild claims, most of which probably won’t happen. So, chances of something brand new coming out of nowhere are pretty slim!
But then again, Covid-19 blindsided us all and messed up our economies. I don’t think anyone saw that pandemic coming. So, I guess there are exceptions.
What I really like about Soros’s idea is that it tells you not to trade too often if you want to make money. You gotta wait for the right time to go against the crowd. And on that point, I totally agree.
Soros didn’t get rich by staring at a computer screen and making quick trades all day. He raked in the big bucks by making bold bets against the UK and then the Asian Tigers. Those two bets made him billions!
If you talk to analysts who’ve been around for a while, they’ll all have stories about one or two big trades they saw coming and talked about. As a guy who comfortable profiting in Bear markets and trading from the short side. I can point to the DOT.com Bubble and the 2008 financial crisis. Before those markets hit the peak and crashed, I was already saying they’d fall. But if I’d actually put a ton of money on those predictions, I might be writing this on a beach in Fiji instead of a beach in Portugal. I’m just not a big risk-taker, and I’m pretty attached to what I’ve got.
So, most experienced analysts have similar tales to tell. Some might even brag about how smart they were buying BTC when it was dirt cheap, like 30 bucks. And yeah, maybe they were clever, or maybe they just took a wild shot on something crazy, and it paid off big time. Either way, they got it right!
But let’s face it, these big game-changing events where you can make a ton of money are super rare. In between those, we gotta put in a lot of hard work to make our money, usually by guessing what’ll happen in the short term.
Many of us are currently focused on developments in the country just north of Mexico, often referred to as a Banana Republic. This nation is home to the wealthiest hundred individuals globally, who possess more wealth than half of the entire planet’s population combined.
These billionaires are deeply committed to preserving the existing global order. To this end, they’re willing to incarcerate any political adversaries who might pose a challenge to the status quo. Interestingly, as a safety net, I hear they’ve also acquired thousands of acres on Maui, in case things take an unexpected turn.
For those of us trying to make a few extra bucks, we’re more concerned about the potential impact of the ongoing economic downturn on the American dollar. Moreover, we’re considering the implications if the BRICS coalition (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) shifts further away from utilizing the dollar for their international trade transactions.
While many Americans have confidence in the dollar’s continued role as the world’s primary reserve currency, there’s a prevailing sentiment that under the current administration, circumstances might deteriorate before they improve. With this in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to witness a further weakening of the dollar. I’m closely observing the situation, particularly in relation to its performance against the Euro, the Mickey Mouse currency of the European Union.
Personally, I prefer not to base my trading decisions on potential scenarios involving armed conflicts. However, it’s evident that Eastern European nations are becoming increasingly apprehensive about the situation in Ukraine. These nations are dissatisfied with the apparent lack of proactive efforts by Western leaders, who influence organizations like NATO, to bring a swift end to the conflict.
Whatever unfolds over the upcoming months or year will likely have a more pronounced impact on Europeans compared to their North American counterparts. Furthermore, it’s reasonable to anticipate that the USA will change direction when we see a new administration in the White House. This stands in contrast to the European Union, where it’s all about moving in the same direction, come hell or high-water.
Whilst in the USA they have weaponized the Judicial system, in Europe, the approach seems to involve utilizing the socialist tax system to maintain authority and control, often leaving the general populace bearing the brunt of the burden. Consequently, as a resident of Europe, I’m considering the prospect of investing in BTC if its value experiences further decline. Similarly, I’m exploring the possibility of acquiring Gold, in addition to diversifying into a range of commodities in the coming months. Additionally, I’m looking into government-backed energy projects as investment opportunities.
Recently, I’ve been discussing the merits of Whitehill Green Hydrogen, a project situated in Scotland that seems promising. Electric vehicles have recently come under scrutiny due to incidents involving battery fires, raising concerns. Conversely, I also learned that Toyota has introduced a new hydrogen engine, which has piqued my interest. I find the concept of hydrogen fuel cell banks at service stations, allowing for rapid swaps of depleted cells, particularly appealing. This offers a distinct advantage compared to waiting for electric batteries to recharge.
While I’m not particularly inclined towards renewable energy solutions (my T-shirt humorously warns against provoking an Old Man who rides a Harley-Davidson), I remember being skeptical about cryptocurrencies during their inception, and we’ve all witnessed how that market evolved.
I’ve perhaps shared more than necessary this week, so I’ll conclude here. Next week, I intend to delve further into why I find commodities appealing, despite concerns about economic downturns.
Until then, stay well.
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