USD Momentum Slows as Debt Ceiling Talks Continue
Last week all eyes were on the Greenback and if it could continue its strong run. The week ended with just that although it did give up some gains by later in the week.
The DXY closed 0.5% higher around the 103.20 level. The main driver as we move towards the end of May is the debt ceiling and how / if that can be resolved as both sides still seem some distance away from a compromise.
Euro lost ground to all major crosses last week even as CPI and GDP releases were in line with expectations. The Euro still has significant rate hikes priced in as with the global economy situation still look worse the overall rate expectations may end up being optimistic.
GBP had a very quiet week with little or no data releases of note. the GBP traded flat on the week against major crosses.
Commodity currencies ended the week very mixed with AUD struggling as weaker than expected industrial and retail activity in China set a weaker tone for the week. NZD rose 1.4% ahead of the RBNZ announcement next week and a continued hawkish theme helped support the NZD at elevated levels. Yen was the weeks loser as continued risk on pushed the safe haven to lows.
Oil continued its theme of the last couple of weeks trading in a moderate range. The WTI gained 2.6% to close around the $71.80 level.
The week ahead is expected to be dominated by debt ceiling negotiations. Overall, the ceiling has been raised 80 times and we would expect this rise to be no different once the posturing of both sides is navigated.
Data we have PMI and the RBNZ rate decision. We close the week with US GDP and PCE price index.
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