The Old Man’s Views It’s been a good week or so, BUT will it continue?

This post was originally published on jpfs.com

I am more than happy with the recent strength in various markets, especially as it’s removed a lot of the doom and gloom that hung over the markets throughout most of last year.

 

Many have accused me of always being pessimistic in my reports, and I was for much of last year. However, I see that the only reason to be optimistic in a bear market is if you are short.

 

What you have yet to find me doing is writing optimistic reports just because people like bullish positive comments. I am not a content provider who needs to promote a product or company every week.

 

I am an analyst who, once a week, shares my thoughts on the markets and tries to steer investors into looking at various financial products when they appear to offer profitable opportunities.

 

More importantly, as a speculator, I am just as happy going short of a product as I am going long. That is because I practice risk management strategies which I am pleased with, which give me some protection when my analysis doesn’t prove correct.

 

As I mentioned in previous reports, I have placed a chunk of change into some of the funds at trademakers. That is because this year will be about short to medium-term investing.

 

In such conditions, young active fund managers willing to sit in front of a screen all day and press buttons will outperform someone like me, who is older, slower, and more focused on hedging my portfolio over the long term.

 

I had a good year last year, and this year is starting very well.

 

Gold and BTC, which I have held for some time, are currently looking good.

 

Gold, I have held for over a year is picking up again. The BTC I started buying on a scale-down basis back in September when prices first dipped below 20,000 is very pleasing (even if I didn’t buy as much as I had hoped).

I banked a little profit by shorting aluminium last year, and I am now looking to go long again.

 

Similarly, we stole a little bit of money in the grain markets last year, and I have bought a few call options as insurance against adverse weather conditions over the next few months.

 

Although it was a little scary, there was also an excellent return made through shorting Natural Gas last year, and now I am looking at going long, which is a lot less frightening.

 

 

I dodged the equity market last year, and I see myself doing little in this arena this year because the economic situation remains unclear.

 

Inflation has reached its heights, and we could see some decline in inflation this year, but how that affects equities remains uncertain. Energy and commodity stocks might be supportive, but the lack of consumer spending this year could drag down the value of many companies. The real estate sector is becoming a massive concern.

 

I have heard some government bod indicate they expect a return to 2% inflation early next year, which I take with a pinch of salt. I learned a long time ago to treat all government indicators with a healthy dose of scepticism.

 

This week we are seeing a gathering of my favourite people in Davos, which we should not ignore.

 

No one reading this report should like what’s happening around the WEF, but we would be foolish not to keep an eye on what’s said.

Mrs Von der Leyen, the unelected President of the EU, made a presentation yesterday in which she declared that the west’s aim is to destroy Russia’s economy.

 

Her comments are a little frightening because western economies are not exactly on solid ground, so if we make this a war between economies, we could see much damage and pain.

 

A German woman pissing off Germany’s leading energy supplier is a worry. An unelected President of the EU, at a gathering of unelected elites, talking of stepping up war and damaging the outlook for Europeans because of democracy and freedom smacks of too much hypocrisy to me.

I think the most significant danger we face is the hypocrisy of our political classes, which is a more substantial threat to our financial well-being than Russia or Climate change.

 

I will not dwell on what is happening in the political arena, as we all have different views. However, I am worried that we are not hearing anything from our leaders I can trust or anything which would encourage me to make a long-term investment.

 

That is why I have a diversified portfolio and placed just a few pennies with fund managers who will be more active than I can be or want to be.

That is also why I will only buy tokens or coins involved in projects I understand or projects in which I am interested.

 

Until next time.

The post

The Old Man’s Views

It’s been a good week or so, BUT will it continue?

appeared first on JP Fund Services.