Digital Asset Insights
Digital Asset Insights #93
It is a new week, and here are what you need to know about the market trends last week. Find how the state of your favorite digital asset and leverage on the expert predictions for the new week.
On Monday, 14th of November, Bitcoin price tagged the $17,592 resistance level after recovering from the crash witnessed. The king coin failed to move higher and was attempting another bounce from $16,762. Bitcoin price was the primary focus for crypto traders going into the third trading week of November, as its next move would determine the outcome for the rest of the market. After a 10% decline in the second week of November, the bulls finally stepped near the upper $15,000 level to provide support. The peer-to-peer digital currency managed to recover 8% of its market value.
On Tuesday, Bitcoin price traded at $16,996. The 10% decline printed a higher low at $15,815. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed the market was cooling off as the indicator climbed back into support on smaller time frames.
Bitcoin price traded at $16,704. On November 16, the bears rejected entry to the $17,000 barrier with the help of the 8-day exponential moving average. Like several altcoins, the peer-to-peer digital currency remains submerged in oversold territory on the Relative Strength Index.
As of Friday, last week, Bitcoin price had yet to show its cards as an ongoing consolidation was below $17,000. Following the 25% decline earlier in the month, the peer-to-peer digital currency had been confined to a coiling trading range. A pennant formation was displayed near the newly established monthly lows, which would result in a crash of equal value to the prior rally.
Bitcoin price traded at $16,682 as the bears forged several rejections at the $17,000 through the 8-day exponential moving average.
At the end of last week, Bitcoin price was on the cusp of trying to reclaim a large part of its incurred losses when FTX fell out of the closet. Unfortunately, bulls could not hold the ground above the red descending trend line after a missile accident happened on Polish soil. This triggered a small fade that put BTC back between $17,000 on the top side and $16,000 on the low side.
BTC needs more elements to work in favour of the bulls if it ever wants to break out of the chains from the red descending trend line again. Next, the lack of interest is normal, as the risk of making a new low for 2022 is simply too close.
Ethereum price declined and closed just below the short-term critical support level at $1,240 on November 13. The ensuing 3.1% rise brought the market value of the altcoin to $1,257.
On Tuesday, last week, Ethereum price was facing significant bearish pressure. After a 35% decline on the month, the bulls produced a retaliation rally that was capped near the recently broken support at $1,300. After a few days of consolidation, the ETH price was still submerged below the barrier and showed signals that suggest bulls were hesitant to stay in the market. Ethereum price auctioned at $1,264 as the bulls attempted to hurdle the 8-day exponential moving average.
Ethereum price struggled to stay afloat during the third trading week of November. After a 35% decline in the month, the bulls had been persistent in their attempts to rally higher. Still, the bullish attempts appear to be exhausting underlying support in the market. If market conditions persist, a sweep of the newfound monthly lows near $1,080 could occur.
On 18th of November, Ethereum price auctioned at $1,214. The auctioning price remained suppressed under an 8-day exponential moving average. A classic bearish shooting star pattern was established on the daily chart, solidifying the idea that the ETH price is headed lower.
Ethereum price continued to display a bearish stronghold as the third trading week of November goes into the weekend. After a 35% decline witnessed earlier this month, the bullish attempts to recover have all been rejected. If market conditions persist, the bears could induce a downswing toward the recently established lows at $1,080. Ethereum price exchanged hands at $1,205. Like Bitcoin, ETH was unable to hurdle the 8-day exponential moving average.
Ethereum price had a very binary path in its history where it was simple to be long and stay long for 2021 and become simply bearish for 2022. Thus far, the easy part, as it becomes very choppy now for both bulls and bears to identify where and when to trade and how. A good, solid, and strict trading plan is vital to surviving this market momentum.
Current tail risks are thus crushing ETH price as inflation, the overall performance of the dollar this year and the situation in Ukraine, in addition to the technical from the 55-day and the 200-day SMA as caps on the upside. ETH looks to be in no condition to jump back above $1,404 and will see traders await lower levels around $1,000 before deciding to build up some positions for a long strategy.
Upside potential would only come if a few elements are being broken to the upside and added to the toolbox of the bulls, as those key levels would become support instead of resistance. The goal is to reach that pivotal level near $2,695 initially, which would mean a 120% price increase. Although that might look farfetched, bulls only need to break both the 55-day and the 200-day SMA by performing a weekly close above there. Once that is done, it is smooth sailing to that $2,695, as not many big technical caps are in between.
Ripple price followed in the footsteps of Ethereum, shedding roughly 14% in three days after testing the resistance level at $0.38. It traded at $0.35 on Monday, November 14.
However, on Tuesday, November 15, XRP price exchanged hands at $0.39 as the bulls pulled off a second recovery rally of recouping 20% losses from the week prior. The price consolidated just below the $0.40 barrier. XRP price hurdled above the 8-day exponential moving average, which sets it apart from Bitcoin and Ethereum.
XRP price, unlike the other top two crypto coins, showed much more retaliation strength during the recent bear rally in November. As of Wednesday, last week, XRP auctioned at $0.37. The bulls hurdled above the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) and were retesting the indicator for added support.
XRP price diverged from most cryptos as the bulls were resilient to the market's downtrend suppression on November 18. XRP auctioned at $0.37. The bulls hurdled above the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) and were retesting the indicator for added support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed back into support and hovered above both of the RSI's moving averages, which was an optimistic signal.
Going into the new week, Ripple price is holding its gains for the week in a very challenging week where quite a lot of bearish sparks were going against the attempt of bulls to recover at least a chunk of the incurred losses from last week. Unfortunately, bulls could not push price action above that 200-day Simple Moving Average at $0.3973 and saw it being respected as a cap. To the downside, bulls were keen to get in even a few cents before the bounce off the red descending trend line at $0.3212.
XRP, thus, is one of the more bullish outliers in the cryptocurrency space as several other cryptocurrencies and alt currencies are bleeding heavily. The bruised confidence makes it ideal for traders to cherry-pick the ones holding the best cards. XRP could be seen as the best crop pick, with massive cash allocated toward it, due for a break above the 200-day SMA and a target of $0.4974 to the upside by the end of next week.
Risk to the downside is being held by the technical rejection on the top side against that 200-day SMA, as it could trigger another leg lower in the new week. That would go hand in hand with markets being rattled again by some geopolitical triggers.
At the beginning of last week, Cardano price was in the lower low zone between $0.31 and $0.41, trading at $0.33. Over the last month, ADA has been struggling to breach past resistance and was almost able to before FTX collapsed. The ensuing panic led the market to crash, resulting in Cardano falling and tagging the immediate support at $0.31.
On Tuesday, November15, Cardano price created a range, extending from $0.310 to $0.379 after it triggered a 22% recovery bounce between November 9 and 10. This range was where ADA traded in the process of flipping the $0.336 to $0.339 hurdle into a support floor.
Cardano traded at $0.330 on Wednesday. Cardano price look to tag the resistance level at $0.345, which marked the neckline of the double bottom pattern. Interestingly, whales holding between 100,000 to 1,000,000 ADA started accumulating again, which is a proxy of these smart money investors. The last time these whales started buying ADA was between late February and early March when Cardano price dropped 30%.
Going into the new week, Cardano price action is signalling issues and red flags all across the board as the FTX fallout is brutal in the crypto asset class. With the crypto winter already, a lot of interest, cash and market cap got burned to survive the frost. Now the FTX aftermath with a resurgence in geopolitical issues is becoming the one issue too many that bites in the last reserves crypto traders had parked in ADA.
As the year is nearing its end, there is still a possibility of a Christmas rally with boosted morale and traders cheerfully ending the year on a high note. ADA would be popping up, brushing against the red descending trend line that falls in line with the 55-day Simple Moving Average. The best possible bullish outcome would be to break that area and take over the pivotal level at $0.415 with a weekly close above. Traders would fall over one another as if it was a Black Friday sale to be part of the rally, and by the exploding buy-side demand, see price print quickly at $0.500 in just two weeks.
Solana (SOL $14) lost 60% of its market value in a week due to its exposure to the now-defunct crypto exchange FTX, which continued to haunt the "Ethereum killer" well into the future. Solana price took a major hit declining by over 63% in three days following FTX's collapse on November 6. The situation for the altcoin has not improved despite multiple attempts at recovery.
As of Thursday, November 17, trading at $13.25 and was in the oversold area as seen in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Due to its position, the altcoin could witness increased buying pressure for sidelined buyers looking to accumulate SOL at a discount.
Solana price is bearing the broader market's bearishness and maintaining its crucial support. Akin to the altcoin, crypto institutions also continue to take a hit from FTX's collapse. The widespread negative implications could make the recovery of the crypto market a challenge.
Solana price is at the cusp of a breakdown. Solana price declined by 62% following the November 6 crash and is currently trading at $13.56. Since the broader crypto market outlook is bearish, SOL holders might want to brace themselves for a downfall.
If Solana price continues to register red candles on the chart, it would end up tagging the immediate support level at $12.78. A further slump in price would bring the altcoin toward the $11.69 mark, which is crucial in preventing a crash to $7.77. However, a daily candlestick close below this support level would bring SOL to a 21-month low, constituting 42% losses for investors.
But if the investors decide to accumulate SOL at its current lows, the consequent buying pressure could prevent a downfall. Solana price might recover to $17.76, provided it can flip the $15.17 level into a support floor. A rise from $17.76 would result in the cryptocurrency tagging $19.80, which marks the upper limit of the inefficiency at $18.87 to $19.80, labeled as the Fair Value Gap (FVG).