Archive for August 2022
Cromwell FX Market View Jackson Hole; Fed Still on Track
Last week the USD consolidated its dominance as Powell speaking at the Jackson Hole symposium reiterated policy to reduce inflation and cautioned against switching to an accommodative stance too early. Risk assets fell as a result of the more hawkish stance than expected. Euro continued to trade in a lowering range during the week. The…
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The Old Man’s Views Summertime Blues?
Your favourite Old Man is going on holiday, and as the markets decline, it sure seems like a good time to take a few weeks off. Indeed, considering the state of the economy, this might be the last one I can afford for a few years. I’ve been bearish for the best part of a…
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Cromwell FX Market View USD The Nicest house in a bad neighbourhood
Last week the US Dollar closed significantly stronger as the previous weeks risk on rally lost its steam and yields rose once again. US Dollar surged as investors adjusted their expectations. With much more data releases before the next FOMC meeting expectations of continued rate rises once again took the fore. Both the GBP and…
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The Old Man’s Views A week of absurdity (No, I am not talking about raiding Mar-A-Lago!)
Breaking News! North Korea buys Russian Oil with Euro, European court issues arrest warrant for a Dutch programmer at ECB. Although it was the job of ECB programmer to improve the functionality of the ECB printing press. The court decided that because North Korea used some of the newly printed money to buy Russian Oil,…
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Cromwell FX Market View Does the CPI Release Change the Fed?
Last week the US CPI print gave the market reason to react that the Fed may change tact on rate rises. The last meeting saw the Fed state they would be more data driven and that is exactly what we got. The US Dollar didn’t like the weak CPI number and lost ground all week.…
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The Old Man’s Views There is more action on the beaches than in the markets!
Another week has passed, and it seems more traders are on the beach than in their offices. There are lots of stories on LinkedIn, but most of them are just promotional. I am spending much of my time arranging my Airbnbs and ensuring my guests have a decent holiday visiting Portugal. Sadly, the same cannot…
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Cromwell FX Market View Bank of England Dovish Hike Surprises
Last week saw the Bank of England raise rates by 0.5% to 1.75%. This is the biggest rise in 27 years and the highest rates have been since 2008. Strong payrolls later in the week gave the US Dollar a lift after last weeks announcement that the Fed will be looking more at the data…
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The Old Man’s Views Congratulations to the England Women’s football team!
Years of dedication and effort paid off! A team of people, who suffered to become the best at what they do, have finally achieved the success they have earned. As an Englishman, I can’t remember when I was so proud of English footballers, or at least it’s been a long time (I was nine years…
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Cromwell FX Market View The FED to be more data driven
Last week saw the FED rise interest rates by the expected 75bps. The big surprise was the comments post meeting. The markets had priced in further interest rates through to end of 2022. The comments coming out where that the Fed will be more data driven potentially signalling a slow in rate rises. Euro failed…
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