The Old Man’s Views This Is Not the Time to Stick Your Head in the Sand. Be Pro-Active.

Before HODL came into the lexicon, we used to say, if in doubt, get out. With the short-term picture becoming increasingly uncertain, I have lightened up my exposure to most speculative instruments.   I have in my wallet a few coins which I have discussed over recent weeks, which I have been lucky enough to…
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Cromwell FX Market View Bear Market… Yes or No?

Last week risk off flows continued a pace as global inflation numbers remained high. The US Dollar finally lost some ground to other currencies as the world waits to see if we are turning into a bear market.   The US Dollar had its first losing week in sometime. US data is still showing some…
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Cromwell FX Market View Dollar Remain Strong; Euro Looks Vulnerable

Last week saw huge volatility in most markets. Crypto was probably the most wild as some lost their entire value. In the short term we saw some stabilisation towards the end of the week. Yen ended the best performer vs the USD helped by risk aversion and a retracement in treasury yields. The US Dollar…
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The Old Man’s Views Happy Birthday to Me! …Or Is It?

Today, my oldest contract should have come into play. But the government cheated me by unilaterally changing the terms and conditions.   When I started paying into my pension back in the 70s, they told me I would start receiving it today…on my 65th Birthday! However, somewhere down the line, some young civil servant decided…
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The Old Man’s Views Until Recently, My Bear Den Was Almost Empty. Now, It Seems Full of Old Bulls

Sometimes it is challenging to assess how much people need to lose before the penny drops. This time, it has taken months for some, which is costly.   I am an Old Bear trader, and it never ceases to amaze me how long it takes before people accept that a bull market is over. It…
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Cromwell FX Market View The Fed Continues to Rule

The week that was so anticipated finally arrived. The Fed raised interest rates by 50bps ruling out the possibility of 75bps. However by the end of the week, fed fund futures are still pricing in 82.9% chance of a 75bps hike in at the June 15 FOMC meeting, to 1.50-75% Most pairs found some level…
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The Old Man’s Views Is This the Calm Before The Storm?

This week, I am back in the UK to see my old Mum and catch up with family before the tourist season takes off in Portugal. In a few weeks, we will be invaded by what the locals call Seagulls: Visiting tourists who make a lot of noise and leave shit everywhere.   As expected,…
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Cromwell FX Market View Dollar Continues Its Dominance; Risk Assets Fall

The US Dollar ended the week  the strongest, having the best week since 2015 and with Dollar index hitting a two-decade high. The index moved to 103.92 its highest since 2002 as expectations of aggressive rate hike by the Fed in June. The Euro although performed better earlier in the week as Macron won a…
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